Estimated Watts/kg from Climbing Time 
Given one's climbing time, it is possible to estimate one's Watts/kilogram power
output for a Mt Washington hillclimb. The chart below relies on several assumptions to estimate W/kg.
These are: 
 Climbing time is based on fair conditions, that is, no extreme wind or mud
 Bike, clothing, water, tools, etc all total 24 lbs (10.9kg)
 Total losses (rolling, wind, etc) in climbing Mt Washington are 8%


A Top Notch time will require approx. 3.6W/kg or higher. If your bike and gear is much lighter than 24 lbs,
maybe you'd be at 3.5W/kg. The blue curve below shows Watts per total climbing weight.
This curve represents body weight plus 24 lbs. The red line is derived from it by applying power generated
to body weight only. In good conditions, I have done the climb in 68 minutes a couple of times.
This represents about 4.3W/kg for me. Just for kicks, Tom Danielson set the record at just under 50 minutes.
This is about 5.7W/kg. His bike and gear were likely lighter than 24 lbs however, so he may have been closer
to 5.5 or 5.6W/kg. I've read many reports of Lance Armstrong's power on various hills, typically around 6.5W/kg.
This would put lance at around 45 minutes on Mt Washington. Per my calculations, Lance would have put out about
424W climbing Alpe d'Huez in the 2004 TdF TT (1125 meters vertical, 74kg + bike etc, 39.7 minutes). This is
about 5.7W/kg, the same as Tom's on 10 minute longer Washington. BUT, Lance's d'Huez effort was well into the
tour with more to go. Mt Washington is a one day affair for most that climb it, so you give it your all on fresh
legs. 
No Power Measurement? 
So say you've never attempted Ascutney to estimate your Mt Washington time, and you do
not have access to power measuring equipment. How do you estimate climbing time and gearing
selection? Walter Zorn has one of the better speed and power calculators on his website at
www.kreuzotter.de. What you can do, is ride a flat timetrial for
a duration you think you can do Mt Washington in. Note your average speed. Then in Walter's
calculator, enter your body specs, riding position, bike data, and your speed. It will calculate
average power for you. It is important when you do this that wind (including beneficial draft
from cars) is not a factor, and you ride alone. The terrain should be quite flat, and with no
interruptions. This is typically very hard to do in New England, especially for 12 hours. You
can also use Walter's calculator to directly estimate your Mt Washington climbing speed by
entering a 12% grade. Then simply divide 7.6 miles by this calculated speed. But you will
need a timetrial power estimate first, and this must come from you riding for 12+ hours at
timetrial pace. 
Perhaps the most robust online cycling calculator available is found at
www.analyticcycling.com You can analyze to death any
dynamic or static force on an part or your bike or body. The various tools here are not as easy to
use, but the results are likely pretty accurate. You will need some knowledge of physics and aerodynamics to
gain maximum use from this toolset. Lastly, Peter O'Reilly has also put together a
Whiteface to Washington
predictor based on several year's worth of data. This should be a little more robust than my predictor,
which cherry picked data from one year with similar conditions for both races.
